Friday, August 15, 2014

Putin: On Smokin' and Drinkin'

From ITAR-TASS, August 14:

Russian President Vladimir Putin believes heavy drinking and smoking are social problems that surely have to be addressed, but at the same time he preferred to make some reservations. For instance, he warned that sky-high excise duties on tobacco and a re-run of the unsuccessful Soviet-era campaigns against alcoholism would merely cause harm.

As he answered State Duma members' questions at a meeting in the southern resort city of Yalta in Crimea, Putin agreed that the authorities should by all means throw their weight behind anti-drinking and anti-smoking campaigns.

"But it would be very wrong to do that the Soviet way," Putin said adding that that policy had achieved nothing in terms of easing alcoholic abuse.

"People started using substandard alcohol and distilling home-made liquors and so on," he said. In his opinion a comprehensive approach - a combination of healthy lifestyles and fitness - would be far more effective.

Putin acknowledged that some government officials were for a drastic hike in the excise duties on tobacco. However, he is certain that if such a measure is taken overnight, smokers will not be smoking less, but just switch to all sorts of crap." If excise duties are to be raised after all, that must be done slowly, step by step.

Also, Putin replied to the idea of struggle against energy drinks. He agreed that counter-measures should be far more resolute than they have been so far.

When asked about foreign investment, Putin said he was certain foreign investors' money in Russia should enjoy reliable protection.

He pointed out that Russia must create conditions that would let any investor, including a foreign one, feel that there was no risk of being cheated.

"If a person or company has brought in investments, they are to be certain the investments will not be taken away, that they are under the protection of government policies," he said. . . .

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via Johnson’s Russia List, August 14, 2014




Thursday, August 14, 2014

Hillary: I'm a Hawk

The following is a transcript of Hillary Clinton’s interview with Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic, August 10, 2014.

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JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It seems that you’ve shifted your position on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. By [chief U.S. negotiator] Wendy Sherman’s definition of maximalism, you’ve taken a fairly maximalist position—little or no enrichment for Iran. Are you taking a harder line than your former colleagues in the Obama administration are taking on this matter?

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON: It’s a consistent line. I’ve always been in the camp that held that they did not have a right to enrichment. Contrary to their claim, there is no such thing as a right to enrich. This is absolutely unfounded. There is no such right. I am well aware that I am not at the negotiating table anymore, but I think it’s important to send a signal to everybody who is there that there cannot be a deal unless there is a clear set of restrictions on Iran. The preference would be no enrichment. The potential fallback position would be such little enrichment that they could not break out. So, little or no enrichment has always been my position.

JG: Am I wrong in saying that the Obama administration’s negotiators have a more flexible understanding of this issue at the moment?

HRC: I don’t want to speak for them, but I would argue that Iran, through the voice of the supreme leader, has taken a very maximalist position—he wants 190,000 centrifuges and the right to enrich. And some in our Congress, and some of our best friends, have taken the opposite position—absolutely no enrichment. I think in a negotiation you need to be very clear about what it is going to take to move the other side. I think at the moment there is a big debate going on in Tehran about what they can or should do in order to get relief from the sanctions. It’s my understanding that we still have a united P5+1 position, which is intensive inspections, very clear limits on what they can do in their facilities that they would permitted to operate, and then how they handle this question of enrichment, whether it’s done from the outside, or whether it can truly be constrained to meet what I think our standard should be of little-to-no enrichment. That’s what this negotiation is about.

JG: But there is no sign that the Iranians are willing to pull back—freezing in place is the farthest they seem to be willing to go. Am I wrong?

HRC: We don’t know. I think there’s a political debate. I think you had the position staked out by the supreme leader that they’re going to get to do what they want to do, and that they don’t have any intention of having a nuclear weapon but they nevertheless want 190,000 centrifuges (laughs). I think the political, non-clerical side of the equation is basically saying, “Look, you know, getting relief from these sanctions is economically and politically important to us. We have our hands full in Syria and Iraq, just to name two places, maybe increasingly in Lebanon, and who knows what’s going to happen with us and Hamas. So what harm does it do to have a very strict regime that we can live under until we determine that maybe we won’t have to any longer?” That, I think, is the other side of the argument. 

JG: Would you be content with an Iran that is perpetually a year away from being able to reach nuclear-breakout capability?

HRC: I would like it to be more than a year. I think it should be more than a year. No enrichment at all would make everyone breathe easier. If, however, they want a little bit for the Tehran research reactor, or a little bit for this scientific researcher, but they’ll never go above 5 percent enrichment—

JG: So, a few thousand centrifuges?

HRC: We know what “no” means. If we’re talking a little, we’re talking about a discrete, constantly inspected number of centrifuges. “No” is my preference.

JG: Would you define what “a little” means?

HRC: No.

JG: So what the Gulf states want, and what the Israelis want, which is to say no enrichment at all, is not a militant, unrealistic position?

HRC: It’s not an unrealistic position. I think it’s important that they stake out that position.

JG: So, Gaza. As you write in your book, you negotiated the last long-term ceasefire in 2012. Are you surprised at all that it didn’t hold?

HRC: I’m surprised that it held as long as it did. But given the changes in the region, the fall of [former Egyptian President Mohamed] Morsi, his replacement by [Abdel Fattah] al-Sisi, the corner that Hamas felt itself in, I’m not surprised that Hamas provoked another attack.

JG: The Israeli response, was it disproportionate?

HRC: Israel was attacked by rockets from Gaza. Israel has a right to defend itself. The steps Hamas has taken to embed rockets and command-and-control facilities and tunnel entrances in civilian areas, this makes a response by Israel difficult. Of course Israel, just like the United States, or any other democratic country, should do everything they can possibly do to limit civilian casualties.

JG: Do you think Israel did enough to limit civilian casualties?

HRC: It’s unclear. I think Israel did what it had to do to respond to the rockets. And there is the surprising number and complexity of the tunnels, and Hamas has consistently, not just in this conflict, but in the past, been less than protective of their civilians.

JG: Before we continue talking endlessly about Gaza, can I ask you if you think we spend too much time on Gaza and on Israel-Palestine generally? I ask because over the past year or so your successor spent a tremendous amount of time on the Israel-Palestinian file and in the same period of time an al Qaeda-inspired organization took over half of Syria and Iraq.

HRC: Right, right.

JG: I understand that secretaries of state can do more than one thing at a time. But what is the cause of this preoccupation?

HRC: I’ve thought a lot about this, because you do have a number of conflicts going on right now. As the U.S., as a U.S. official, you have to pay attention to anything that threatens Israel directly, or anything in the larger Middle East that arises out of the Palestinian-Israeli situation. That’s just a given.

It is striking, however, that you have more than 170,000 people dead in Syria. You have the vacuum that has been created by the relentless assault by Assad on his own population, an assault that has bred these extremist groups, the most well-known of which, ISIS—or ISIL—is now literally expanding its territory inside Syria and inside Iraq. You have Russia massing battalions—Russia, that actually annexed and is occupying part of a UN member state—and I fear that it will do even more to prevent the incremental success of the Ukrainian government to take back its own territory, other than Crimea. More than 1,000 people have been killed in Ukraine on both sides, not counting the [Malaysia Airlines] plane, and yet we do see this enormous international reaction against Israel, and Israel’s right to defend itself, and the way Israel has to defend itself. This reaction is uncalled for and unfair.

JG: What do you think causes this reaction?

HRC: There are a number of factors going into it. You can’t ever discount anti-Semitism, especially with what’s going on in Europe today. There are more demonstrations against Israel by an exponential amount than there are against Russia seizing part of Ukraine and shooting down a civilian airliner. So there’s something else at work here than what you see on TV.

And what you see on TV is so effectively stage-managed by Hamas, and always has been. What you see is largely what Hamas invites and permits Western journalists to report on from Gaza. It’s the old PR problem that Israel has. Yes, there are substantive, deep levels of antagonism or anti-Semitism towards Israel, because it’s a powerful state, a really effective military. And Hamas paints itself as the defender of the rights of the Palestinians to have their own state. So the PR battle is one that is historically tilted against Israel.

JG: Nevertheless there are hundreds of children—

HRC: Absolutely, and it’s dreadful.

JG: Who do you hold responsible for those deaths? How do you parcel out blame?

HRC: I’m not sure it’s possible to parcel out blame because it’s impossible to know what happens in the fog of war. Some reports say, maybe it wasn’t the exact UN school that was bombed, but it was the annex to the school next door where they were firing the rockets. And I do think oftentimes that the anguish you are privy to because of the coverage, and the women and the children and all the rest of that, makes it very difficult to sort through to get to the truth.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Hamas initiated this conflict and wanted to do so in order to leverage its position, having been shut out by the Egyptians post-Morsi, having been shunned by the Gulf, having been pulled into a technocratic government with Fatah and the Palestinian Authority that might have caused better governance and a greater willingness on the part of the people of Gaza to move away from tolerating Hamas in their midst. So the ultimate responsibility has to rest on Hamas and the decisions it made.

That doesn’t mean that, just as we try to do in the United States and be as careful as possible in going after targets to avoid civilians, that there aren’t mistakes that are made. We’ve made them. I don’t know a nation, no matter what its values are—and I think that democratic nations have demonstrably better values in a conflict position—that hasn’t made errors, but ultimately the responsibility rests with Hamas.

JG: Several years ago, when you were in the Senate, we had a conversation about what would move Israeli leaders to make compromises for peace. You’ve had a lot of arguments with Netanyahu. What is your thinking on Netanyahu now? 

HRC: Let’s step back. First of all, [former Israeli Prime Minister] Yitzhak Rabin was prepared to do so much and he was murdered for that belief. And then [former Israeli Prime Minister] Ehud Barak offered everything you could imagine being given under any realistic scenario to the Palestinians for their state, and [former Palestinian leader Yasir] Arafat walked away. I don’t care about the revisionist history. I know that Arafat walked away, okay? Everybody says, “American needs to say something.” Well, we said it, it was the Clinton parameters, we put it out there, and Bill Clinton is adored in Israel, as you know. He got Netanyahu to give up territory, which Netanyahu believes lost him the prime ministership [in his first term], but he moved in that direction, as hard as it was.

Bush pretty much ignored what was going on and they made a terrible error in the Palestinian elections [in which Hamas came to power in Gaza], but he did come with the Roadmap [to Peace] and the Roadmap was credible and it talked about what needed to be done, and this is one area where I give the Palestinians credit. Under [former Palestinian Prime Minister] Salam Fayyad, they made a lot of progress.

I had the last face-to-face negotiations between Abbas and Netanyahu. [Secretary of State John] Kerry never got there. I had them in the room three times with [former Middle East negotiator] George Mitchell and me, and that was it. And I saw Netanyahu move from being against the two-state solution to announcing his support for it, to considering all kinds of Barak-like options, way far from what he is, and what he is comfortable with.

Now I put Jerusalem in a different category. That is the hardest issue, Again, based on my experience—and you know, I got Netanyahu to agree to the unprecedented  settlement freeze, it did not cover East Jerusalem, but it did cover the West Bank and it was actually legitimate and it did stop new housing starts for 10 months. It took me nine months to get Abbas into the negotiations even after we delivered on the settlement freeze, he had a million reasons, some of them legitimate, some of them the same old, same old.

So what I tell people is, yeah, if I were the prime minister of Israel, you’re damn right I would expect to have control over security [on the West Bank], because even if I’m dealing with Abbas, who is 79 years old, and other members of Fatah, who are enjoying a better lifestyle and making money on all kinds of things, that does not protect Israel from the influx of Hamas or cross-border attacks from anywhere else. With Syria and Iraq, it is all one big threat. So Netanyahu could not do this in good conscience. If this were Rabin or Barak in his place—and I’ve talked to Ehud about this—they would have to demand a level of security that would be provided by the [Israel Defense Forces] for a period of time. And in my meetings with them I got Abbas to about six, seven, eight years on continued IDF presence. Now he’s fallen back to three, but he was with me at six, seven, eight. I got Netanyahu to go from forever to 2025. That’s a negotiation, okay? So I know. Dealing with Bibi is not easy, so people get frustrated and they lose sight of what we’re trying to achieve here.

JG: You go out of your way in Hard Choices to praise Robert Ford, who recently quit as U.S. ambassador to Syria, as an excellent diplomat. Ford quit in protest and has recently written strongly about what he sees as the inadequacies of Obama administration policy. Do you agree with Ford that we are at fault for not doing enough to build up a credible Syrian opposition when we could have?

HRC: I have the highest regard for Robert. I’m the one who convinced the administration to send an ambassador to Syria. You know, this is why I called the chapter on Syria “A Wicked Problem.” I can’t sit here today and say that if we had done what I recommended, and what Robert Ford recommended, that we’d be in a demonstrably different place.

JG: That’s the president’s argument, that we wouldn’t be in a different place.

HRC: Well, I did believe, which is why I advocated this, that if we were to carefully vet, train, and equip early on a core group of the developing Free Syrian Army, we would, number one, have some better insight into what was going on on the ground. Two, we would have been helped in standing up a credible political opposition, which would prove to be very difficult, because there was this constant struggle between what was largely an exile group outside of Syria trying to claim to be the political opposition, and the people on the ground, primarily those doing the fighting and dying, who rejected that, and we were never able to bridge that, despite a lot of efforts that Robert and others made.

So I did think that eventually, and I said this at the time, in a conflict like this, the hard men with the guns are going to be the more likely actors in any political transition than those on the outside just talking. And therefore we needed to figure out how we could support them on the ground, better equip them, and we didn’t have to go all the way, and I totally understand the cautions that we had to contend with, but we’ll never know. And I don’t think we can claim to know.

JG: You do have a suspicion, though.

HRC: Obviously. I advocated for a position.

JG: Do you think we’d be where we are with ISIS right now if the U.S. had done more three years ago to build up a moderate Syrian opposition?

HRC: Well, I don’t know the answer to that. I know that the failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against Assad—there were Islamists, there were secularists, there was everything in the middle—the failure to do that left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled.

They were often armed in an indiscriminate way by other forces and we had no skin in the game that really enabled us to prevent this indiscriminate arming.

JG: Is there a chance that President Obama overlearned the lessons of the previous administration? In other words, if the story of the Bush administration is one of overreach, is the story of the Obama administration one of underreach?

HRC: You know, I don’t think you can draw that conclusion. It’s a very key question. How do you calibrate, that’s the key issue. I think we have learned a lot during this period, but then how to apply it going forward will still take a lot of calibration and balancing. But you know, we helped overthrow [Libyan leader Muammar] Qaddafi. 

JG: But we didn’t stick around for the aftermath.

HRC: Well, we did stick around. We stuck around with offers of money and technical assistance, on everything from getting rid of some of the nasty stuff he left behind, to border security, to training. It wasn’t just us, it was the Europeans as well. Some of the Gulf countries had their particular favorites. They certainly stuck around and backed their favorite militias. It is not yet clear how the Libyans themselves will overcome the lack of security, which they inherited from Qaddafi. Remember, they’ve had two good elections. They’ve elected moderates and secularists and a limited number of Islamists, so you talk about democracy in action—the Libyans have done it twice—but they can’t control the ground. But how can you help when you have so many different players who looted the stuffed warehouses of every kind of weapon from the Qaddafi regime, some of which they’re using in Libya, some of which they’re passing out around the region?

So you can go back and argue either, we should we have helped the people of Libya try to overthrow a dictator who, remember, killed Americans and did a lot of other bad stuff, or we should have been on the sidelines. In this case we helped, but that didn’t make the road any easier in Syria, where we said, “It’s messy, it’s complicated, we’re not sure what the outcome will be.” So what I’m hoping for is that we sort out what we have learned, because we’ve tried a bunch of different approaches. Egypt is a perfect example. The revolution in Tahrir Square was not a Muslim Brotherhood revolution. It was not led by Islamists. They came very late to the party. Mubarak falls and I’m in Cairo a short time after, meeting the leaders of this movement, and I’m saying, “Okay, who’s going to run for office? Who’s going to form a political party?” and they’re saying, “We don’t do that, that’s not who we are.”

And I said that there are only two organized groups in this country, the military and the Muslim Brotherhood, and what we have here is an old lesson that you can’t beat somebody with nobody. There was a real opportunity here to, if a group had arisen out of the revolution, to create a democratic Egyptian alternative. Didn’t  happen. What do we have to think about? In order to do that better, I see a lot of questions that we have to be answering. I don’t think we can draw judgments yet. I think we can draw a judgment about the Bush administration in terms of overreach, but I don’t know that we can reach a conclusion about underreach.

JG: There is this moment in your book, in which Morsi tells you not to worry about jihadists in the Sinai—he says in essence that now that a Muslim Brotherhood government is in charge, jihadists won’t feel the need to continue their campaign. You write that this was either shockingly sinister or shockingly naïve. Which one do you think it was?

HRC: I think Morsi was naïve. I’m just talking about Morsi, not necessarily anyone else in the Muslim Brotherhood. I think he genuinely believed that with the legitimacy of an elected Islamist government, that the jihadists would see that there was a different route to power and influence and would be part of the political process. He had every hope, in fact, that the credible election of a Muslim Brotherhood government would mean the end of jihadist activities within Egypt, and also exemplify that there’s a different way to power.

The debate is between the bin Ladens of the world and the Muslim Brotherhood. The bin Ladens believe you can’t overthrow the infidels or the impure through politics. It has to be through violent resistance. So when I made the case to Morsi that we were picking up a lot of intelligence about jihadist groups creating safe havens inside Sinai, and that this would be a threat not only to Israel but to Egypt, he just dismissed this out of hand, and then shortly thereafter a large group of Egyptian soldiers were murdered.

JG: In an interview in 2011, I asked you if we should fear the Muslim Brotherhood—this is well before they came into power—and you said, ‘The jury is out.” Is the jury still out for you today?

HRC: I think the jury would come back with a lesser included offense, and that is a failure to govern in a democratic, inclusive manner while holding power in Cairo. The Muslim Brotherhood had the most extraordinary opportunity to demonstrate the potential for an Islamist movement to take responsibility for governance, and they were ill-prepared and unable to make the transition from movement to responsibility. We will see how they respond to the crackdown they’re under in Egypt, but the Muslim Brotherhood itself, although it had close ties with Hamas, for example, had not evidenced, because they were kept under tight control by Mubarak, the willingness to engage in violent conflict to achieve their goals. So the jury is in on their failure to govern in a way that would win the confidence of the entire Egyptian electorate. The jury is out as to whether they morph into a violent jihadist resistance group.

JG: There’s a critique you hear of the Obama administration in the Gulf, in Jordan, in Israel, that it is a sign of naiveté to believe that there are Islamists you can work with, and that Hamas might even be a group that you could work with. Is there a role for political Islam in these countries? Can we ever find a way to work with them?

HRC: I think it’s too soon to tell. I would not put Hamas in the category of people we could work with. I don’t think that is realistic because its whole reason for being is resistance against Israel, destruction of Israel, and it is married to very nasty tactics and ideologies, including virulent anti-Semitism. I do not think they should be in any way treated as a legitimate interlocutor, especially because if you do that, it redounds to the disadvantage of the Palestinian Authority, which has a lot of problems, but historically has changed its charter, moved away from the kind of guerrilla resistance movement of previous decades.

I think you have to ask yourself, could different leaders have made a difference in the Muslim Brotherhood’s governance of Egypt? We won’t know and we can’t know the answer to that question. We know that Morsi was ill-equipped to be president of Egypt. He had no political experience. He was an engineer, he was wedded to the ideology of top-down control.

JG: But you’re open to the idea that there are sophisticated Islamists out there? 

HRC: I think you’ve seen a level of sophistication in Tunisia. It’s a very different environment than Egypt, much smaller, but you’ve seen the Ennahda Party evolve from being quite demanding that their position be accepted as the national position but then being willing to step back in the face of very strong political opposition from secularists, from moderate Muslims, etc. So Tunisia might not be the tail that wags the dog, but it’s an interesting tail. If you look at Morocco, where the king had a major role in organizing the electoral change, you have a head of state who is a monarch who is descended from Muhammad, you have a government that is largely but not completely representative of the Muslim party of Morocco. So I think that there are not a lot of analogies, but when you look around the world, there’s a Hindu nationalist party now, back in power in India. The big question for Prime Minister Modi is how inclusive he will be as leader because of questions raised concerning his governance of Gujurat [the state he governed, which was the scene of anti-Muslim riots in 2002]. There were certainly Christian parties in Europe, pre- and post-World War II. They had very strong values that they wanted to see their society follow, but they were steeped in democracy, so they were good political actors.

JG: So, it’s not an impossibility.

HRC: It’s not an impossibility. So far, it doesn’t seem likely. We have to say that. Because for whatever reason, whatever combination of reasons, there hasn’t been the soil necessary to nurture the political side of the experience, for people whose primary self-definition is as Islamists.

JG: Are we so egocentric, so Washington-centric, that we think that our decisions are dispositive? As secretary, did you learn more about the possibilities of American power or the limitations of American power?

HRC: Both, but it’s not just about American power. It’s American values that also happen to be universal values. If you have no political—small “p”—experience, it is really hard to go from a dictatorship to anything resembling what you and I would call democracy. That’s the lesson of Egypt. We didn’t invade Egypt. They did it themselves, and once they did it they looked around and didn’t know what they were supposed to do next.

I think we’ve learned about the limits of our power to spread freedom and democracy. That’s one of the big lessons out of Iraq. But we’ve also learned about the importance of our power, our influence, and our values appropriately deployed and explained. If you’re looking at what we could have done that would have been more effective, would have been more accepted by the Egyptians on the political front, what could we have done that would have been more effective in Libya, where they did their elections really well under incredibly difficult circumstances but they looked around and they had no levers to pull because they had these militias out there. My passion is, let’s do some after-action reviews, let’s learn these lessons, let’s figure out how we’re going to have different and better responses going forward.

JG: Is the lesson for you, like it is for President Obama, “Don’t do stupid shit”?

HRC: That’s a good lesson but it’s more complicated than that. Because your stupid may not be mine, and vice versa. I don’t think it was stupid for the United States to do everything we could to remove Qaddafi because that came from the bottom up. That was people asking us to help. It was stupid to do what we did in Iraq and to have no plan about what to do after we did it. That was really stupid. I don’t think you can quickly jump to conclusions about what falls into the stupid and non-stupid categories. That’s what I’m arguing.

JG: Do you think the next administration, whoever it is, can find some harmony between muscular intervention—“We must do something”—vs. let’s just not do something stupid, let’s stay away from problems like Syria because it’s a wicked problem and not something we want to tackle?

HRC: I think part of the challenge is that our government too often has a tendency to swing between these extremes. The pendulum swings back and then the pendulum swings the other way. What I’m arguing for is to take a hard look at what tools we have. Are they sufficient for the complex situations we’re going to face, or not? And what can we do to have better tools? I do think that is an important debate.

One of the reasons why I worry about what’s happening in the Middle East right now is because of the breakout capacity of jihadist groups that can affect Europe, can affect the United States. Jihadist groups are governing territory. They will never stay there, though. They are driven to expand. Their raison d'être is to be against the West, against the Crusaders, against the fill-in-the-blank—and we all fit into one of these categories. How do we try to contain that? I’m thinking a lot about containment, deterrence, and defeat. You know, we did a good job in containing the Soviet Union, but we made a lot of mistakes, we supported really nasty guys, we did some things that we are not particularly proud of, from Latin America to Southeast Asia, but we did have a kind of overarching framework about what we were trying to do that did lead to the defeat of the Soviet Union and the collapse of Communism. That was our objective. We achieved it.

Now the big mistake was thinking that, okay, the end of history has come upon us, after the fall of the Soviet Union. That was never true, history never stops and nationalisms were going to assert themselves, and then other variations on ideologies were going to claim  their space. Obviously, jihadi Islam is the prime example, but not the only example—the effort by Putin to restore his vision of Russian greatness is another. In the world in which we are living right now, vacuums get filled by some pretty unsavory players.

JG: There doesn’t seem to be a domestic constituency for the type of engagement you might symbolize.

HRC: Well, that’s because most Americans think of engagement and go immediately to military engagement. That’s why I use the phrase “smart power.” I did it deliberately because I thought we had to have another way of talking about American engagement, other than unilateralism and the so-called boots on the ground.

You know, when you’re down on yourself, and when you are hunkering down and pulling back, you’re not going to make any better decisions than when you were aggressively, belligerently putting yourself forward. One issue is that we don’t even tell our own story very well these days. 

JG: I think that defeating fascism and communism is a pretty big deal.

HRC: That’s how I feel! Maybe this is old-fashioned. Okay, I feel that this might be an old-fashioned idea—but I’m about to find out, in more ways than one.

Great nations need organizing principles, and “Don’t do stupid stuff” is not an organizing principle. It may be a necessary brake on the actions you might take in order to promote a vision.

JG: So why do you think the president went out of his way to suggest recently that that this is his foreign policy in a nutshell?

HRC: I think he was trying to communicate to the American people that he’s not going to do something crazy. I’ve sat in too many rooms with the president. He’s thoughtful, he’s incredibly smart, and able to analyze a lot of different factors that are all moving at the same time. I think he is cautious because he knows what he inherited, both the two wars and the economic front, and he has expended a lot of capital and energy trying to pull us out of the hole we’re in.

So I think that that’s a political message. It’s not his worldview, if that makes sense to you.
JG: There is an idea in some quarters that the administration shows signs of believing that we, the U.S., aren’t so great, so we shouldn’t be telling people what to do.

HRC: I know that that is an opinion held by a certain group of Americans, I get all that. It’s not where I’m at.

JG: What is your organizing principle, then?

HRC: Peace, progress, and prosperity. This worked for a very long time. Take prosperity. That’s a huge domestic challenge for us. If we don’t restore the American dream for Americans, then you can forget about any kind of continuing leadership in the world. Americans deserve to feel secure in their own lives, in their own middle-class aspirations, before you go to them and say, “We’re going to have to enforce navigable sea lanes in the South China Sea.” You’ve got to take care of your home first. That’s another part of the political messaging that you have to engage in right now. People are not only turned off about being engaged in the world, they’re pretty discouraged about what’s happening here at home.

I think people want—and this is a generalization I will go ahead and make—people want to make sure our economic situation improves and that our political decision-making improves. Whether they articulate it this way or not, I think people feel like we’re facing really important challenges here at home: The economy is not growing, the middle class is not feeling like they are secure, and we are living in a time of gridlock and dysfunction that is just frustrating and outraging.

People assume that we’re going to have to do what we do so long as it’s not stupid, but what people want us to focus on are problems here at home. If you were to scratch below the surface on that—and I haven’t looked at the research or the polling—but I think people would say, first things first. Let’s make sure we are taking care of our people and we’re doing it in a way that will bring rewards to those of us who work hard, play by the rules, and yeah, we don’t want to see the world go to hell in a handbasket, and they don’t want to see a resurgence of aggression by anybody.

JG: Do you think they understand your idea about expansionist jihadism following us home?

HRC: I don’t know that people are thinking about it. People are thinking about what is wrong with people in Washington that they can’t make decisions, and they want the economy to grow again. People are feeling a little bit that there’s a little bit happening that is making them feel better about the economy, but it’s not nearly enough where it should be.

JG: Have you been able to embed your women’s agenda at the core of what the federal government does?

HRC: Yes, we did. We had the first-ever ambassador for global women’s issues. That’s permanent now, and that’s a big deal because that is the beachhead.

Secretary Kerry to his credit has issued directions to embassies and diplomats about this continuing to be a priority for our government. There is also a much greater basis in research now that proves you cannot have peace and security without the participation of women. You can’t grow your GDP without opening the doors to full participation of women and girls in the formal economy.

JG: There’s a link between misogyny and stagnation in the Middle East, which in many ways is the world’s most dysfunctional region.

HRC: It’s now very provable, when you look at the data from the IMF and the World Bank and what opening the formal economy would mean to a country’s GDP. You have Prime Minister [Shinzo] Abe in Japan who was elected to fix the economy after so many years of dysfunction in Japan, and one of the major elements in his plan is to get women into the workforce. If you do that, if I remember correctly, the GDP for Japan would go up nine percent. Well, it would go up 34 percent in Egypt. So it’s self-evident and provable.

* * *


Jeffrey Goldberg, “Hillary Clinton: ‘Failure’ to Help Syrian Rebels Led to the Rise of ISIS,” The Atlantic, August 10, 2014

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

West to Libya: We're Concerned

Five western powers released a statement on August 13, 2014, condemning the civil conflict in Libya. As appears from the statement, being powerful means never having to say you’re sorry.

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The Governments of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States strongly condemn the ongoing fighting and violence in and around Tripoli, Benghazi, and across Libya. We are in particular deeply concerned by the increasing toll the violence is taking on Libya’s civilian population and institutions, as well as the threat it poses to Libya’s democratic transition. We deplore the rise in the number of civilian casualties and express deep concern about the shortages in medical supplies, the displacement of thousands of families, the destruction of residences and infrastructure, as well as the halt in economic activity. We are deeply concerned about attacks carried out against the civilian population and civilian targets in Tripoli and Benghazi that may amount to breaches of international humanitarian law. These violations must stop and those responsible must be held accountable.

Violence cannot and must not be a means to achieve political goals or settle ideological differences. Only through political dialogue, inclusiveness, and consensus can Libyans move the country beyond the current crisis and build the free, prosperous, democratic, and secure state for which they have sacrificed so much.

We therefore reiterate the repeated calls by the international community, as well as the Libyan interim government and House of Representatives, for an immediate ceasefire and for all parties to this conflict to begin a peaceful political dialogue, and for them to recognize the authority of the elected representatives of the Libyan people. We remain in constant contact with the United Nations Support Mission in Libya and strongly support its efforts to achieve an immediate ceasefire and to end the bloodshed. We urge all sides to respond positively and without delay.

The Governments of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States continue to stand firmly behind the Libyan people, and will partner with Libya until the hopes and aspirations of the Libyan people are achieved.

* * *


Joint Statement on Libya by the Governments of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States, Office of the Spokesperson, August 13, 2014

Moussa: Egyptian Intervention in Libya

Patrick Kingsley of the Guardian reports on a statement released on August 3rd by Amr Moussa of Egypt:  

Egypt should consider the possibility of a military response to the unrest in neighbouring Libya, one of the country's elder statesmen has argued, prompting speculation in Egyptian media that Cairo is mulling an armed intervention.

Amr Moussa, Egypt's former foreign minister and former secretary-general of the Arab League, said in a statement on Sunday that the current upheaval in Libya, which lies on Egypt's western border, had major implications for Egyptian national security.

"The situation in Libya is a major concern for Egypt, Libya's neighbouring countries, and the Arab world at large," Moussa said.

"Statelets, sects and extremist factions in Libya directly threaten Egypt's national security. I call for a broad public debate to sensitise public opinion to the risks, and to build the necessary support in case we have to exercise our right to self-defence."

Moussa's prominence - and his closeness to Egypt's president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, for whom he has at times acted as an unofficial mouthpiece – has led to speculation that an Egyptian offensive in Libya is on the table.

"Libya burns, and Egypt approaches a military solution", read the front page of al-Masry al-Youm, one of the country's largest private broadsheets.

Not everyone, however, was convinced. "A seasoned politician should know the limits of state intervention in other countries, even if they represent a threat to us," the security analyst and former army officer Khaled Okasha told al-Watan newspaper.

Moussa's statement builds on Egyptian fears that factional fighting in Libya, which has forced most western diplomats to flee the country, could spill over the border. Last month, those fears were compounded by the killing of 21 Egyptian soldiers near the border with Libya.

Concerns have been deepened in recent days by 13,000 Egyptian migrant workers who have fled to Libya's Tunisian border, many with frightening stories of their treatment by Libyan militias.

The upheaval has strengthened Sisi's position in Egypt, where his supporters believe strong leadership is the only alternative to the chaos in Libya and Syria, even if it comes at the cost of everyday freedoms.

Egypt's foreign affairs spokesman declined to comment on Moussa's statement. Another government source said they knew of no immediate plans to intervene in Libya.

* * *


Patrick Kinsley, “Egypt should consider military action in Libya, says senior statesmen,” The Guardian, August 4, 2014

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Not What You Think, But What They Want to Hear

Patrick Cockburn, who writes for London's Independent, is one of the best reporters on Middle Eastern affairs. His columns are available at The Unz Review, featuring perspectives largely excluded from the mainstream media. His latest details a secret report that is disturbing to the proposition--a key assumption of this blog--that you need to listen to what people say in order to know what they think: 

* * *

Israeli spokesmen have their work cut out explaining how they have killed more than 1,000 Palestinians in Gaza, most of them civilians, compared with just three civilians killed in Israel by Hamas rocket and mortar fire. But on television and radio and in newspapers, Israeli government spokesmen such as Mark Regev appear slicker and less aggressive than their predecessors, who were often visibly indifferent to how many Palestinians were killed.

There is a reason for this enhancement of the PR skills of Israeli spokesmen. Going by what they say, the playbook they are using is a professional, well-researched and confidential study on how to influence the media and public opinion in America and Europe. Written by the expert Republican pollster and political strategist Dr Frank Luntz, the study was commissioned five years ago by a group called The Israel Project, with offices in the US and Israel, for use by those “who are on the front lines of fighting the media war for Israel”.

Every one of the 112 pages in the booklet is marked “not for distribution or publication” and it is easy to see why. The Luntz report, officially entitled “The Israel project’s 2009 Global Language Dictionary, was leaked almost immediately to  Newsweek Online, but its true importance has seldom been appreciated. It should be required reading for everybody, especially journalists, interested in any aspect of Israeli policy because of its “dos and don’ts” for Israeli spokesmen.

These are highly illuminating about the gap between what Israeli officials and politicians really believe, and what they say, the latter shaped in minute detail by polling to determine what Americans want to hear. Certainly, no journalist interviewing an Israeli spokesman should do so without reading this preview of many of the themes and phrases employed by Mr Regev and his colleagues.

The booklet is full of meaty advice about how they should shape their answers for different audiences. For example, the study says that “Americans agree that Israel ‘has a right to defensible borders’. But it does you no good to define exactly what those borders should be. Avoid talking about borders in terms of pre- or post-1967, because it only serves to remind Americans of Israel’s military history. Particularly on the left this does you harm. For instance, support for Israel’s right to defensible borders drops from a heady 89 per cent to under 60 per cent when you talk about it in terms of 1967.”

How about the right of return for Palestinian refugees who were expelled or fled in 1948 and in the following years, and who are not allowed to go back to their homes? Here Dr Luntz has subtle advice for spokesmen, saying that “the right of return is a tough issue for Israelis to communicate effectively because much of Israeli language sounds like the ‘separate but equal’ words of the 1950s segregationists and the 1980s advocates of Apartheid. The fact is, Americans don’t like, don’t believe and don’t accept the concept of ‘separate but equal’.”

So how should spokesmen deal with what the booklet admits is a tough question? They should call it a “demand”, on the grounds that Americans don’t like people who make demands. “Then say ‘Palestinians aren’t content with their own state. Now they’re demanding territory inside Israel’.” Other suggestions for an effective Israeli response include saying that the right of return might become part of a final settlement “at some point in the future”.

Dr Luntz notes that Americans as a whole are fearful of mass immigration into the US, so mention of “mass Palestinian immigration” into Israel will not go down well with them. If nothing else works, say that the return of Palestinians would “derail the effort to achieve peace”.

The Luntz report was written in the aftermath of Operation Cast Lead in December 2008 and January 2009, when 1,387 Palestinians and nine Israelis were killed.

There is a whole chapter on “isolating Iran-backed Hamas as an obstacle to peace”. Unfortunately, come the current Operation Protective Edge, which began on 6 July, there was a problem for Israeli propagandists because Hamas had quarrelled with Iran over the war in Syria and had no contact with Tehran. Friendly relations have been resumed only in the past few days – thanks to the Israeli invasion.

Much of Dr Luntz’s advice is about the tone and presentation of the Israeli case. He says it is absolutely crucial to exude empathy for Palestinians: “Persuadables [sic] won’t care how much you know until they know how much you care. Show Empathy for BOTH sides!” This may explain why a number of Israeli spokesman are almost lachrymose about the plight of Palestinians being pounded by Israeli bombs and shells.

In a sentence in bold type, underlined and with capitalisation, Dr Luntz says that Israeli spokesmen or political leaders must never, ever justify “the deliberate slaughter of innocent women and children” and they must aggressively challenge those who accuse Israel of such a crime. Israeli spokesmen struggled to be true to this prescription when 16 Palestinians were killed in a UN shelter in Gaza last Thursday.

There is a list of words and phrases to be used and a list of those to be avoided. Schmaltz is at a premium: “The best way, the only way, to achieve lasting peace is to achieve mutual respect.” Above all, Israel’s desire for peace with the Palestinians should be emphasised at all times because this what Americans overwhelmingly want to happen. But any pressure on Israel to actually make peace can be reduced by saying “one step at a time, one day at a time”, which will be accepted as “a commonsense approach to the land-for-peace equation”.

Dr Luntz cites as an example of an “effective Israeli sound bite” one which reads: “I particularly want to reach out to Palestinian mothers who have lost their children. No parent should have to bury their child.”

The study admits that the Israeli government does not really want a two-state solution, but says this should be masked because 78 per cent of Americans do. Hopes for the economic betterment of Palestinians should be emphasised.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is quoted with approval for saying that it is “time for someone to ask Hamas: what exactly are YOU doing to bring prosperity to your people”. The hypocrisy of this beggars belief: it is the seven-year-old Israeli economic siege that has reduced the Gaza to poverty and misery.


On every occasion, the presentation of events by Israeli spokesmen is geared to giving Americans and Europeans the impression that Israel wants peace with the Palestinians and is prepared to compromise to achieve this, when all the evidence is that it does not. Though it was not intended as such, few more revealing studies have been written about modern Israel in times of war and peace.

* * *

Patrick Cockburn, "Israel-Gaza Conflict: Secret Report Helps Israelis to Hide Facts," Independent (Unz Review), July 27, 2014

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Abbas: We Will Never Forgive and Never Forget

The remarks of Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority, to an emergency meeting of the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah, on July 22, 2014: 

* * *

"From the first moment of this barbaric Israeli aggression against our people in Gaza, in Jerusalem, and in the West Bank, we have called loudly about the necessity of stopping this aggression; we have held extensive regional and international contacts to this end, and, in particular, we have asked Egyptian President Al-Sisi to act to stop the aggression in order to prevent the shedding of the blood of our people. [The president] complied, and he should be thanked for this, and Egypt presented an initiative that includes an immediate ceasefire and action to end the siege, open the crossings, and so on...
"We have appealed to Egypt and have held talks with the president and with the relevant Palestinian factions, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. After that, we appealed to Turkey and Qatar; we approached the leaderships in both countries, and we met there with [Hamas political bureau head] Khaled Mash'al in order to stop the Israeli aggression and to arrive at a ceasefire, and from there to act to end the siege, to open the crossings, and to stop the aggression in all its forms; we demanded that [Israel] respect the Gazans' fishing rights, that it abolish the so-called 'buffer zones,' that it free the prisoners from the Shalit deal that Israel has re-arrested, that it free the fourth phase of the long-term prisoners and Legislative Council members; that there be an immediate operation to bring humanitarian aid [into Gaza], and that there be an international conference for the [countries] that are donating to Gaza's rehabilitation.
"The time has come for everyone to raise their voices and tell the truth, clearly and powerfully, in the face of the Israeli killing and destruction machine. The oppressing occupation forces have crossed every line and [have broken] all the laws. They have deviated from all standards of human and international morality in their ferocity and barbarism.
"We know that we have no aircraft and artillery. But we have at our disposal something stronger than fire, iron, and arrogance – we have the power of truth and justice. We have the rights. Nothing will erase our historic rights that were established in mighty battles. We have our unity and our cohesion.
"Therefore, I call on everyone to help each other and to set aside the disputes at these fateful moments. [I call] on everyone to show national responsibility and to distance themselves from narrow sectarian party interests. We understand that the main goal of this Israeli aggression is to destroy our national cause and to thwart the reconciliation.
"We stress to our people that we adhere to national unity, to ending the schism, and to the national unity government. We will continue contacts and regional and international moves. We will not relinquish our responsibility. We will go anywhere in order to stop the aggression and the confiscation of our legitimate rights, and we will hunt down those who commit crimes against our people, no matter how long it takes. These crimes will not go unprosecuted and unpunished.
"I reiterate the need to disconnect the Palestinian problem from all the disagreements  – whatever they may be – and to stop the policy of the double standard, because a single drop of the blood of a Palestinian child is more precious to us than anything else in this world. I wish to address these statements to our people in general and to our beloved ones in the Gaza Strip in particular.
"Oh dear ones, persistent and patient, your pain is our pain and the pain of our people wherever they are. The suffering and affliction you are experiencing today deeply wound our heart, and every drop of blood and every martyr who falls pains us deep within our souls. Words cannot describe our emotions and what our heart feels for you. Your wound is our wound and is the great anger that is within us. We will never forgive and never forget. Our people will kneel only before Allah. No one in the world will live in safety and stability while the children of Gaza, Jerusalem, [and] the West Bank, and Palestinian children everywhere, do not live in safety and stability.
"Praise and eternal life to our brave martyrs. Victory, if Allah wills it, for truth, justice, and the will of our people, which has paid a very high price for its freedom and independence. The killing and destruction will not frighten us. We will rebuild what the aggression has destroyed and dress our wounds when we inevitably win and the banners of Jerusalem fly high over Al-Aqsa and the Church of the Holy Sepulcher in Jerusalem, the capital of the independent state of Palestine, if Allah wills it."
* * *

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Dermer: IDF Deserves Nobel Peace Prize

Israel's Ambassador to the United States, Ron Dermer, spoke on July 21 at Christians United for Israel (CUFI). This transcript is from his Facebook page: 

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. . . As we meet here tonight in Washington, thousands of Israeli soldiers are fighting in Gaza and millions of Israelis are huddled in bomb shelters.

Twenty seven Israelis have lost their lives. Twenty five soldiers including two American citizens Max Steinberg and Sean Carmeli, have paid the ultimate price for the defense of Israel.

Israel’s army is defending our country against the firing of rockets at our cities and against terrorists tunneling under our borders to massacre and kidnap our civilians.

But what is at stake is not just a battle between Israel and Hamas.

It is a battle between a democratic society that seeks peace with all its neighbors and a terror organization whose charter calls for the destruction of the Jewish state and the genocide of the Jewish people.

-- Interruption

It is also a battle between a free society that allows freedom of speech, and one that doesn’t.

It is a battle between a compassionate country that’s dropping leaflets, making phone calls and sending text messages to save Palestinian civilians and a brutal terror organization that uses hospitals as military command centers, manufactures rockets next to Mosques and turns UN schools into weapons depots. 

Israel appreciates that most responsible leaders around the world have supported Israel’s right to defend itself – that list includes President Obama, President Hollande of France, Chancellor Merkel of Germany, Prime Minister Cameron of Great Britain, Prime Minister Abbot of Australia, and Prime Minister Harper of Canada.

And we also appreciate that President Obama and the American Congress have helped Israel develop the Iron Dome missile defense system.

Iron Dome saves Israeli lives. Without Iron Dome, hundreds of rockets would be landing on our cities and killing our civilians.

But Iron Dome also saves Palestinian lives. Because if those missiles were landing in Israel, our government would have to respond with much greater force.

But ladies and gentlemen, Israel deserves more than the support of the international community.
Israel deserves the admiration of the international community.

Because no military in history has taken greater care than the IDF to protect innocents of the other side.

And this care is happening not when we are fighting a war by remote control thousands of miles away.

This is happening when ¾ of our country – the equivalent of over 200 million Americans - are huddled in bomb shelters.

Imagine what the United States would do if 2,000 rockets would be fired by a terror organization from contiguous territory, and 200 million Americans would have to rush to bomb shelters day after day?

Does anyone seriously believe that America would use less force?

Does anyone seriously believe that Britain would use less force if 40 million Brits were in bomb shelters every day?

Actually, in the case of Britain, we can do more than guess. We know how they responded.

The only other time in history when thousands of rockets were fired at a civilian population was during World War II. The Germans fired 4,000 rockets at Great Britain.

What was the British response? What was Churchill’s response? Dresden. Carpet bombing of German cities.

Now I’m the last person in the world who will criticize Churchill, who was perhaps the greatest leader of the 20th century.

That's right, Churchill deserves a round of applause.

I will not criticize the decisions he made to fight the Nazis and defend our common civilization.

But at the same time, I will not accept, and no one should accept, criticism of Israel for acting with restraint that has not been shown and would not be shown by any nation on earth.

I especially will not tolerate criticism of my country at a time when Israeli soldiers are dying so that innocent Palestinians can live.

--Interruption

There is a section for moral idiots at the back of the room

Israel did not have to send its soldiers into many of the places they are fighting today.

We could have given people time to evacuate these areas – which we did anyway - and then bombed from the air all the buildings that were being used by fighters to store and fire weapons.

But we didn’t. As we have done time after time, we are sending our soldiers into this hornet’s nest of Palestinian terror that is booby-trapped with mines and riddled with subterranean tunnels.

Some are shamelessly accusing Israel of genocide and would put us in the dock for war crimes.

But the truth is that the Israeli Defense Forces should be given the Nobel Peace Prize… a Nobel Peace Prize for fighting with unimaginable restraint.

One day, when the enemies of Israel are defeated and the cynics are silenced, people will look back and marvel at how the most threatened nation on earth never lost its nerve and always upheld its values.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Never forget the moral difference between Israel and Hamas.

Hamas deliberately targets the innocent. They want to kill as many of our civilians as possible. For them, the more civilians they kill, the greater the success.

Israel does not target the innocent. We want to harm as few civilians as possible. For us, the more civilians that are harmed, the greater the failure.

What makes Israel’s task so challenging is the unprecedented effort of Hamas to endanger their own civilians.

While the IDF is doing everything to get Palestinian civilians out of harm’s way, Hamas is doing everything to put Palestinian civilians into harm’s way – by ignoring IDF warnings to evacuate, by forcing Palestinians to serve as human shields, and by placing missile batteries next to playgrounds, hospitals and homes.

And you know why Hamas is doing this?

It’s not only because of the evil they represent – and it may not be politically correct, but they are evil. After all, an organization that is capable of producing scores of suicide bombers doesn’t care a whit about Palestinian civilians losing their lives.

But Hamas also uses its strategy of human shields because it works.

--Interruption

It works on people like that.

Because time after time, when Palestinian civilians die, when those heart-wrenching pictures of women and children appear on television – pictures that would move any decent human being – the blame is placed on Israel and the pressure is put on Israel.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The question is whether we can break this cycle.

Will the world stand up to the use of human shields?

Will the media continue to allow Hamas to manipulate it?

Will the UN and many so-called human rights organizations continue to say nothing and do nothing?

Edmund Burke once said that all that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people do nothing.

But when it comes to Hamas’s use of human shields, what the UN and many human rights organizations are doing is worse than being silent in the face of evil.

They attack the good. They attack Israel for its legitimate actions of self-defense. They file Goldstone reports accusing Israel of war crimes.

Now don't get me wrong. These organizations are not like Hamas. They do not intentionally harm Palestinian civilians.

But in convincing Hamas that its strategy of using human shields will be effective, they are unwittingly serving as their accomplices.

It’s time for the UN to find a moral compass.

It’s time for the world to find a moral backbone.

It's time to take a stand against the use of human shields.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

We have a common heritage. We face common enemies. We share a common future.

That future is under threat by radical Islamist movements that are sweeping through the Middle East.

The values of the Islamists can be seen every day in Gaza, in Syria, in Iraq, in Iran and elsewhere in the region.

Radical Shias are led by Iran and its foremost proxy Hezbollah. Radical Sunnis are led by the likes of ISIS, Al Qaeda and Hamas.

The radical Shias speak of the return of an imam from the 9th century. The radical Sunnis hope to restore a Caliphate from the 7th century.

If they met halfway, I suppose they’d end up in the 8th century – but wherever they ended up, rest assured, it would be a place where there are no rights for women, no tolerance for Jews or Christians, and where those suffering most under their repressive rule would be Muslims who did not share their twisted ideology.

Today, Christians are literally fleeing for their lives from Mosul, Iraq. Under the threat of extortion, conversion or death, 35,000 Christians have fled their homes, many to the safety of the Kurdish areas in Northern Iraq.

May God Bless those Kurds for their decency and humanity.

Maybe that Presbyterian group that recently decided to divest from Israel - the one place in the Middle East with a thriving Christian community - can summon the courage to fire off a press release showing some sympathy with their Christian brothers and sisters in Iraq, Syria, Libya or anywhere else in our region.

But don’t bet on it.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

It may be many decades before the fires being stoked between Shia radicals and Sunni radicals burn out.

The most important thing for the world is to not be singed by the flames. That means preventing any of those radicals from developing weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear weapons.

And it is the Shia radicals, led by Iran, that are closer to achieving that goal.

Hamas in Gaza is the little evil. The Ayatollah regime in Iran is the Great Evil. I don't mean to offend Hezbollah but they're just the medium size evil.

Iran’s regime executes hundreds of political prisoners. It stones women and hangs Christians.

It has helped the Syrian regime massacre nearly 200,000 people, and turned million more into refugees.

Iran is the foremost sponsor of terrorism in the world, perpetrating terror attacks on five continents and 25 countries in the last four years alone.

And Iran continues its march to develop nuclear weapons.

Fortunately, a bad deal was not signed last week with Iran.

A bad deal is a deal that would leave Iran with its nuclear weapons capability essentially intact. That is a deal that would have been unacceptable to Israel.

We hope the international community will stand firm and not agree to a deal where Iran does not fully dismantle its nuclear weapons program.

Pressure can make that happen.

To those who don’t believe that, think about this. If I would have stood here a year ago and told you that virtually all the chemical weapons could be removed from Syria through a diplomatic process, you'd have laughed me off the stage.

But with the right mix of military and diplomatic pressures, that is exactly what happened. And President Obama deserves credit for that.

And with the right mix of military pressures, tough sanctions and clear eyed diplomacy, Iran can be forced to fully dismantle its nuclear weapons capability.

As always, Israel reserves the right to defend itself.

The Jewish people did not restore our sovereignty in the Land of Israel after 2,000 years – the land where our patriarchs prayed, our prophets preached and our kings ruled – we did not restore our sovereignty to let the lifeline of our people be severed by a radical Ayatollah regime in Iran.

Pastor Hagee - Israel lives. And Israel will continue to live, from generation to generation till the end of time.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

In the Book of Deuteronomy, the people of Israel were presented with a simple choice:

I have set before you life and death, blessings and curses. Choose life, so that you and your children may live.

The lines that are being drawn today in the world could not be clearer.

Good is fighting evil.

Those who sanctify life are fighting those who glorify death.

And just as the people of Israel are given a choice, all people have a choice.

Choose wisely. Choose good. Choose life. And in doing so, choose to secure our common future.

Thank you.

* * *

Ambassador Ron Dermer, Facebook, July 21, 2014